In 2008, Professor David Mackay published Sustainable Enegry without the hot air, which estimated how the energy demand of the UK could be met in a sustainable way. The combination of first principles analysis and practical technology analysis has made the book a continued favourite amongst energy enthusiasts even today. The book is still accessible on a free website here.
Whilst many elements of Mackay’s analysis are still accurate today, in some areas the technology has evolved in the almost 2 decades since. The following articles will not attempt to repeat all of Mackay’s work, but will aim to update the conclusions around technology potential for the UK for the most important areas.
The year after publishing the book, David Mackay became the Chief Scientific Advisor to the Department of Energy and Climate Change, serving a 5 year term concluding in 2014. Diagnosed with stomach cancer a year later, Mackay died aged 48 in 2016. In the weeks before his death, Mackay suggested that wind and solar should be discarded by the UK in favour of nuclear and carbon capture. This was primarily motivated by concerns around political viability and cost.
The world of 2026 is very different from 2016. In many ways our situation is more perilous: our financial situation is worse, our political environment is significantly more fractured, and we are now beginning to feel the deleterious effects of climate change. But technological advances mean that many of the solutions to climate change are now within grasp, although significant political and practical barriers remain. Updating Mackay’s analysis to 2026 helps emphasis the areas where the situation may be better than he might have assumed, and, in his own words, make sure we have “a plan that adds up!”.